You’re right, sorry. No attempt to mislead.

Not sure who that advice is for - but sure. If you were black hearted enough to pick the best plan for Russia - this is it.

Try and strong arm a peace deal you don’t really deserve on basis of military terms, then triple down on insidious, corrosive populism like Fico, Orban, Wilders, AfD, FN etc and try and get a more amenable bloc of corrupted slimebag politicians to do your bidding. It’s honestly what they’re best at. They’re much better at corrupting democracy from within than they are at invading them.

Exactly. Diplomacy is a trick of the weak to keep down the strong. The goal was obviously complete Belarus-ization of Ukraine. And yet 4 years on, with a shattered army, terminal demographics and a shittered economy, they are reduced to demanding territory they’d already controlled for a decade.

Trump is their last big card to try and get a peace they don’t deserve. And he’s a geriatric pervert who is 40% Diet Coke by volume. His lifespan is measured in months, they HAVE to get a favorable deal out of his remaining time, full stop. Everything gets worse for the russians after this point. They need men and equipment that doesn’t exist, and they needed it months ago to make a strategic difference today.

The best option for a long term peace might well be for Ukraine to keep bleeding them. Trump and Pootz will howl and wail about ukrainian war mongering - but…what can they really do? The 2025 version of the Ukrainian Army can probably continue to resist like this with zero U.S. support. And the sidelined Europeans don’t have much incentive to stop supporting Ukraine. Russia will continue with it’s corrosive populist misinformation, but doesn’t deserve anything close to the settlement terms it’s proposing.

Good one. I’ve seen it said that Putin is a poker player who wants you to think he’s a chess player. And not a particularly good one. As you say - bluff every hand.

I mean - in all of the disproven myths of this war - the biggest might be their entire Way of War. Horde War is based on the assumption that it doesn’t matter that NATO stuff is better than yours, as long as you have enough of it. You can push from Poland to Portugal, before the feckless pussies in the West are even ready to start responding. Besides, they won’t really fight anyways, because they’re soft. Right?..Right, comrade? Onwards, Blyatzkrieg.

Well here we are, 4 years in, where Russia is a cab ride away from the same territory they’d already controlled for a decade. Except - that they have pissed away their entire soviet stockpile inheritance, destroyed their primary export markets, shown their defense industry to be hot garbage, become junior vassal to China in the Axis of Authoritarian Shitholes, burned through the 30 year war-chest, accelerated their demographic suicide…and for what? The hubris and vain delusions of an overpromoted gangster ghoul.

He would probably accept the current front lines, for sure. But he doesn’t deserve them. Ukraine can probably continue to resist at this level of intensity for a long, long time. Longer than he can afford to fund the war.

And what works for him today - indiscriminate terror bombing and thrusting low quality infiltration teams into pockets of rubble, isn’t a good occupation strategy. The point of taking territory is that you get to keep it, and can hold on to it long term. Exploit and use it. As long as Ukraine retains the capability to bomb, snipe, mine and most importantly drone any russian occupation troops or laborers, then you don’t get the benefits of the territory, and eventually you have to retreat. Just like the U.S. experience in Vietnam. Sure - you can fight tooth and nail to take ground - for a while. Then what. When it’s a death zone, eventually even the most meek serfs or fanatically devoted soldiers either die or flee. Then you retreat, and the enemy comes back.

He has an obedient servant in Trump, an obese octogenarian with the vital signs of a diabetic house cat. He HAS to get a victory of some kind before Trump goes tits up literally, or politically in whatever passes for mid-term elections next year.

This is the endgame. They are trying to strongarm Ukraine into a bad peace that Russia doesn’t deserve. But, as always, Trump doesn’t have the leverage he would like us to believe, and Russia doesn’t have a great strategy if Ukraine just says no. For Ukraine, the smart, strategic move might well be to keep the Russian war machine bleeding, instead of giving it time to recoup and get better for an inevitable next invasion.

That’s the pathetic variable here - nobody things Russia isn’t going to just try again. Soon. So - from Ukraine’s perspective and in a pursuit of a lasting peace…the best thing to do might be to keep fighting.

Exactly. Give them anything, and they will be back for more. Soon.

They have been quiet, but aren’t stupid. Ukraine doesn’t have to accept a deal just because Trump tries to force them. He had already squandered the best leverage he had when he ended meaningful hardware transfers, and made Europe buy U.S. weapons to give to Ukraine.

Loud is usually dumb, and Trump certainly is both. He always tries to posture like he has more leverage than he actually does. Ukraine accepting their terms would be historic and cultural suicide - Zelensky and his advisors know this. I’d say look for them to put on poker faces and drag their feet a bit, inserting conditions in a slow drip that they know Russia won’t want to accept. Already, Russia moved off their initial call to limit the size of Ukraine’s armed forces from 600k to 800k (the size they are right now). Not that this clause has ever been enforceable or even countable in any other conflict. The Allies put severe restrictions against the Germans after the treaty of versailles, and that was never adhered to.

Russia is in a very shitty position, so they’ll pretend to be ultra stronk

He’s caused generational trauma to the entire political system. To the entire culture, really. Don’t think an instant return to normal is what most serious minded people think…but…Looking forward to literally whatever follows. It’s going to take time, but it’s hard to picture anyone stupider, more capricious or less qualified to lead a dignified office.

They say that you shouldn’t celebrate anyone’s death…but there are a few obituaries I’m looking forward to reading.

Right. But - in real terms - that’s not happening. The West’s salami slice strategy of giving Ukraine increasing capabilities has tapered off. It would be great if we blinked our eyes and Russia went away. But - given REAL options, from Ukraine’s perspective, you want to degrade their war capabilities as much as you can for as long as you can, at a reasonable cost to your own. Given the options of a bad peace that will inevitably ensure another invasion in 3-5 years, or just keep fighting and keep the russian war machine bleeding until Russia experiences a major economic collapse, or Putin dies and the country descends into a power struggle… where do you go? Hard to say. But it it’s the latter, then Ukraine’s seemingly impossible goals of regaining lost territory suddenly become less impossible-looking.

Other than the lolz, what does he gain from that. His most useful asset Trump is an obese octogenarian with the vitals of a diabetic house cat. He has to get something before he croaks, or is neutered politcally in midterms next year. Or - in the violent insurrection that follows if he tries to void those elections.

Yeah, I get it. They wouldn’t even be negotiating if they didn’t feel they absolutely had to. They wanted it all, and they’ve pissed away so much for the hubris of an overpromoted, black hearted ghoul’s delusions of imperial glory. They have to make peace on some kind of relatively favorable terms before Trump croaks, that fuels so much of their obvious desperation and sudden willingness to “negotiate”. If you can even call it that. Russia’s tradition of diplomacy is to ask for ludicrous, maximalist terms, and assume feckless pussies on the other side will eventually cave and give you something, because…blah blah blah something about the sanctity of human life.

It’s just so incredibly obvious how big a fuck up this has been, and now what does Ukraine do? What is the smart strategic deicsion. In a sense - you’ve already won by suriving with as little territory lost as could reasonably be expected based on the landscape at the start of the war. But - a temporary ceasefire isn’t a long term peace. You want Russia to fuck off, forever, and to not be able to menace you again. Hopefully, crumbling internally into a post-Putin ethno-corporate warlord era with petty fueds fighting each other instead of invading Ukraine for the bazillionth time in history.

I dunno. If I’m Ukraine, I ride this out, keep bleeding the Russians and wait for better terms. Let Trump rage. At this point, they can probably resist without U.S. aid. Both Europe and Ukraine deserve better terms than are on offer.

I kind of hope that too, and think it’s a) likely and b) the ONLY way towards a lasting peace. Russia is the dictionary definition of a bad faith actor, and their clumsy attempts at diplomacy in the face of their faltering position is just so obvious. It will be interesting to see what Ukraine and Europe do - but the Trump team and their russian handlers don’t have all the leverage that they would like us to believe they do.

Ukraine is not teetering, russia is not advancing rapidly. It seems likely that Ukraine will stall and politely insert more terms they know Russia won’t accept, especially given that there are NO hard security guarantees for Ukraine in the deal framework yet. Russia and Trump will stomp their feet and get red in the face about ‘ukrainian warmongering’, but they will continue to not be able to do much more than they already are. Namely, indiscrimiate terror bombing and sticking small infantry teams into holes of pounded rubble to await being droned while Russia’s hubris keeps it demanding terms it doesn’t really deserve. Russia’s abhorrent tactics are terrible, but they’re not even close to being strategically decisive.

Yes, understood that it helps them creep forward. My point is - so what? How is this a good occupation strategy. The presumptive long-term goal of invasion is that you get to take, pacify and exploit territory won. Russia can push small units forward in insidious tendrils into soft spots. That’s not the same thing as moving new settlers in and exploiting the conquered territory. Occupation troops don’t sit in foxholes in fields - they live in barracks in population centers where economic activity exists to be controlled.

If Ukraine retains the ability to harass and kill occupation soldiers and bold pioneer Russian civilians who move into these targetable border areas, then the war becomes a permanent insurrection. It drains soldiers and resources like an open wound, infinitely unless Russia can completely destroy Ukraine’s ability to resist. You know - a war of total extermination. Which - putting aside the morality of the world standing aside and letting that happen in the first place - they don’t seem capable of doing, in any scenario. It’s like the snake that’s trying to swallow a porcupine. You’ve not thought this through, Russia. The worst part of war is often the pacification. Just ask the U.S. about their experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. At some point, even the most passive, limp minded Russian serf might come to see that it hasn’t been worthwhile given the modest gains russia has achieved in 4 years.

For Russia’s conquest to work, they would need total capitulation, all the way back to the Dneiper at least, and into Odessa. Pushing infiltration teams a few meters a day will take another 5 million+ lives and equipment stocks that don’t exist, plus time they don’t have. This isn’t a great plan.

Yes. and they made a Clint Eastwood movie about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firefox_(film) This is also 50 year old Cold War junk. The Kinzhal is also well understood.

Point being - this story is complete bullshit, there’s not some Ukraine-British plot to steal a museum relic. But - Why? Why would russia want people to think this happened? Their motives are the important thing to understand. Also - it would be nice if Russia went away, forever.

Yeah, it’s not that simple, there is rarely a single factor that causes a complete collapse in a war. It’s probably safe to say whatever the ‘3 day operation’ was, this is no longer it, and they are staying with a plan that makes sense to THEM at least. They have shown many times over that they find destroying the viability of a country through destruction of it’s infrastructure to be a good tactic, like they did in Syria. Reduce the economic viability/potential and then make them more vulnerable to corrosive populist politics, like they are clearly fudning across the world. Having failed with the 3 Day Operation, maybe the plan is a Hungary/Slovakia model, rot from within through disinformation to soften them up and then go for it all again in a couple more years. It seems safe to assume that Putin intends this to happen in his lifetime, and not leave it to chance that a successor shoudl get the glory.

Guess what I’m trying to say is that there are strategic goals, which are not being met, and tactical goals, which might be getting them very slow progress militarily, but aren’t a scalable model for occupation and pacification. Ukraine can still continue to bleed out the russian army, trading relatively small amounts of land for time. There are limits to everything, of course. Broadly, I wonder if the timeline for this war is measurable by however long Trump has to live. Not that American politics has to permeate everything, but - if a democrat had won in 2024 and Ukrainian assistance had continued from the U.S., this war might have concluded by now on less favorable terms than Pootz hopes to extract with his vassal running the White House. At this point - Ukraine can probably trade destroyed towns for hundreds of thousands of Russian casualties for a few more years, just on European and Domestic arms production. If a democrat comes into office again, that might close the window on the viability of this war. Trump was a once-in-a-lifetime gift that has an expiry date. Anyways - as you say - hot air.

Yeah, I know and the way of Horde War is easily understood. Their entire theory of battle since forever was that they could steamroll from Poland to Portgual in a couple weeks, and it didn’t matter if the stuff you had was not as good as NATO’s, as long as you had enough of it. But - scaling back the horror - I think the point I’m trying to make is that even in Ukraine, this isn’t going that well.

They probably have a fairly logical Plan B, that involves reducing Ukraine’s economic viability in the long run, to soften it’s society up for a round 2 in the next 5-10 years. But - the original point remains; that what ‘works’ for them in destroyed rubble in eastern Ukraine isn’t the same as a good occupation strategy. And Ukraine has ZERO incentive to stop fighting, as long as it can throw ANYTHING at Russia and hope for a collapse at home. This is still a war of total conquest, but Russia probably no longer has the means to turn Ukraine into a second Belarus except by long term corrosive bullshit, where it becomes politically vulnerable to disinformation. Belarus, Hungary, Slovakia and the U.S. are probably the approach they SHOULD take, instead of pushing low-functioning 2-3 man teams into tiny pockets and telling them to stay there until they eventually get droned.

You know that’s a good thought. For as terrible as they are at actual warfare, they are really damn good at corrosive disinformation. Maybe they tone down the former and put more into the latter. It’s a mistake to think that their objectives have changed at all, or to dismiss them as stupid. They are cruel, heartless barbarians, but not lacking for brains or ruthlessness.

There is a LONG tradition of them getting bogged down in wars, then dying in very very large numbers, until…something else happens. That something is usually not good for those in power, and often triggers revolution. It’s hard to be rational about life in an aggressive, imperialist serf/slave state. Things go longer and get worse than they should, because…reasons. Russia is a great example of the dangers of investing TOO MUCH power in individuals instead of institutions.

thank you for the clarification.

Yep. And putting yourself in the shoes of a completely black hearted ghoul like Putin - it’s better off to have those monsters you created die at the front than come home and cause havoc. This war continues until (a) Putin dies or (b) manpower recruitment fails to keep up with the demand. And in either case - Russia is completely doomed going forward without MASS immigration. Having a century-long period of ethno-corproate warlordism in a post-war, post-putin russia might be a damper on the immigration levels they are going to need to sustain their heavy-industry, labour intensive workforce. It certainly isn’t likely to attract a modern, productive global workforce.

ne of the most important causes for Soviet Union’s collapse were those Afghan veterans who were accustomed to extremely violent way of doing things. The crazy years of 1990’s and the famously violent Russian mafia were a result of those 500-ish thousand madmen having been freed to roam the Soviet Union and later the Russia. All that instability eventually led to the total economical collapse of 1998.